Replay Redux
I recently completed a replay arc consisting of the following seven
seasons: 1901, 1911, 1920, 1930, 1941, 1949, and 1957. This arc allowed me to
play a group of seasons with a kinda-sorta ten-year gap between each season.
This, in turn, allowed me to traverse the first half of the 20th century and to
experience the evolution of baseball over this time period. These seasons all
pre-date the expansion era but do include both pre- and post-integration
seasons.
Background: Each of these seasons was
replayed using APBA Baseball for Windows (BBW). Each replay was preceded by 3-4
months of prep work, with 6-7 months required to complete the gameplay.
Micro-Managers were not used as all games were played manually. I used the
APBA Transactions Manager (ATMgr) to automatically load my lineups before each
game, which helped to streamline my gameplay. The time allotted to complete
the replay is a comfortable pace for me that allowed me to keep playing but
also allowed me to take a day off to keep myself fresh and not get burnt out on
this. I was able to use revised sets if available and was very pleased with
their tweaks and updates over the previous/original sets.
I have included comments for each of
the seven replays completed, but first some additional comments on the number
of errors and the number of no-hitters that have occurred.
Errors
The following chart shows the actual
season errors and double plays as well as the replay errors and double plays.
The replay double plays always come in below the actual number of double plays,
but you can make the case that it is at least close. The replay errors always
come in well below the actual errors, significantly so. This has further
downstream effects on at-bats and runs/unearned runs, and so on from there. The
1901 cards come with two error numbers per player, but I added a third error
number to 50% of the plate appearances, but the final difference was still
negligible.
Having said that, after seven seasons
of gameplay it has always "felt" like I was making plenty of errors
during the games. It just wasn't until the end of the season that I could look
back and see exactly how far off my error totals were. I am further assuming
that with a normal error number distribution and a normal fielding rating
distribution, I really should plan to see a similar number of error
resultants per season, affected only by the number of games played … it's just
math.
Actual |
|
|
|
|
|
Season |
Games |
Errors |
DP |
E/G |
DP/G |
1901 |
2220 |
5327 |
1530 |
2.40 |
0.69 |
1911 |
2474 |
4542 |
1650 |
1.84 |
0.67 |
1920 |
2468 |
3494 |
1967 |
1.42 |
0.80 |
1930 |
2468 |
3035 |
2482 |
1.23 |
1.01 |
1941 |
2488 |
2778 |
2394 |
1.12 |
0.96 |
1949 |
2480 |
2295 |
2700 |
0.93 |
1.09 |
1957 |
2470 |
2119 |
2512 |
0.86 |
1.02 |
1960 |
2472 |
2169 |
2404 |
0.88 |
0.97 |
1967 |
3240 |
2733 |
2850 |
0.84 |
0.88 |
1970 |
3888 |
3327 |
3695 |
0.86 |
0.95 |
1980 |
4210 |
3609 |
4114 |
0.86 |
0.98 |
1990 |
4210 |
3180 |
3792 |
0.76 |
0.90 |
2000 |
4858 |
3447 |
4711 |
0.71 |
0.97 |
2010 |
4860 |
3030 |
4395 |
0.62 |
0.90 |
2020 |
1796 |
1048 |
1432 |
0.58 |
0.80 |
2023 |
4860 |
2517 |
3970 |
0.52 |
0.82 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replay |
|
|
|
|
|
Season |
Games |
Errors |
DP |
E/G |
DP/G |
1901 |
2204 |
2840 |
1454 |
1.29 |
0.66 |
1911 |
2474 |
2560 |
1447 |
1.03 |
0.58 |
1920 |
2468 |
1973 |
1648 |
0.80 |
0.67 |
1930 |
2468 |
1845 |
2010 |
0.75 |
0.81 |
1941 |
2496 |
1678 |
2114 |
0.67 |
0.85 |
1949 |
2478 |
1915 |
2428 |
0.77 |
0.98 |
1957 |
2470 |
1683 |
2108 |
0.68 |
0.85 |
1967 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
No-Hitters
I occasionally see posts from APBA
players stating they had thrown their first no-hitter in some substantial number of
years of playing … that has not been the case for me. Even with zero no-hitters
in my 1949 replay, there have been a total of 25 no-hitters in this replay arc,
including four perfect games.
April 26, 1901 - Ned
Garvin (WAS) over DET |
May 11, 1901 - Christy
Mathewson (NYG) over BKN - Perfect Game |
June 22, 1901 - Jesse
Tannehill (PIT) over BSN - Perfect Game |
October 1, 1901 - Deacon
Phillippe (PIT) over BSN |
|
July 30, 1911 - Lew
Richie (CHC) over PHP |
August 21, 1911 - Slim
Sallee (STC) over (BKN) |
|
May 5, 1920 - Babe Adams
(PIT) over CHC - Perfect Game |
May 30, 1920 - Babe
Adams (PIT) over CIN |
June 30, 1920 - Rollie
Naylor (PHA) over NYY |
August 1, 1920 - Dolf
Luque (CIN) over NYG |
August 21, 1920 - Eddie
Cicotte (CHW) over WAS |
|
April 22, 1930 - Vic
Sorrell (DET) over STB |
May 20, 1930 - Dolf
Luque (BKN) over PHP |
Nay 22, 1930 - Rip
Collins (STB) over CLE |
July 31, 1930 - Ted
Lyons (CHW) over STC |
|
June 25, 1941 - Elmer
Riddle (CIN) over PHP - Perfect Game |
August 1, 1941 -
Thornton Lee (CHW) over WAS |
August 17, 1941 - Bucky
Walters (CIN) over CHC |
|
1949 - N/A |
|
April 28, 1957 - Lindy
McDaniel (STC) over CHC |
May 22, 1957 - Jim
Wilson (CHW) over NYY |
June 13, 1957 - Art
Ditmar (NYY) over CHW |
June 19, 1957 - Moe
Drabowsky (CHC) over PHP |
July 28, 1957 - Jack
Sanford (PHP) over CHC |
July 31, 1957 - Jim
Bunning (DET) over BSR |
September 24, 1957 -
Bennie Daniels (PIT) over BKN |
|
1967 - NA |
I suppose this isn’t an inordinate number
of no-hitters considering the number of games played, but they are always a
pleasant and surprising result. The fact that I am using actual as-played
lineups makes the lineups a little less strong than they might otherwise be,
plus the winning pitchers tend to have a better grade, so I suppose none of
this is out of line.
Replay Seasons
For each of these replay seasons
listed below, there is a link included to the replay blog, a list of dates from
where gameplay began and the World Series ended, and a final standings
compilation including the actual season results and the replay season results.
A brief season summary will also be included, but if you should want more
detail, the blog posts at the link provided will have that.
1901
November, 2019 - June, 2020
As a reminder, this was the first year
of existence for the American League. Previously they existed as the Western
League, a minor league as prescribed by the National Agreement that dictated
actions of the Major and Minor leagues and their teams. After the 1900 season
the Western League decided they didn’t want to be a Minor League anymore and
declared it was now the American League (AL), a Major League in direct
competition with the National League (NL), and further, they began to poach
players away from the NL teams.
As one could imagine, this didn’t make
the NL very happy, and the squabbling and lawsuits went on for years. The two
leagues didn’t play a real World Series until 1903 (although that didn’t stop
me).
There has not been a 1901 revised set
released, so this was played using the original season disk. All players were
carded with two error numbers instead of the usual one, but I added a third
error number to half the players to help account for the number of errors that
occurred during the season (it didn't help much). 80+ additional players were
hand-created to fill the rosters as well.
At the halfway point of the 1901 AL
season Chicago was mired in second place behind Boston, but that wouldn’t last
long as the White Sox went 53-19 (.736) in the second half of the season and
ran away with the AL pennant.
Most interesting was that Washington
only used five pitchers all season, with a total of only eighteen relief
appearances among them. However, almost every pitcher played multiple games on the field as needed, and there were multiple games with multiple pitchers
manning positions on the field.
Pittsburgh was clearly the best team
in the NL - second in hitting, second in pitching, second in defense, a settled
big three at the top of the pitching rotation, and one of the all-time greats (Honus Wagner) in the middle of the lineup. The
Pirates did just enough at the end of the season to stay ahead of a
hard-charging Brooklyn team before finally claiming the pennant on the
next-to-last day of the season.
Most of the country felt that Chicago
was the favorite to win the World Series, but it was Pittsburgh who stepped up
with good pitching and clutch hitting to grab the 1901 World Series victory in
six games.
1911
August, 2021 - April, 2022
1911 is not advertised as a revised
set, but it does state that all 535 players are carded. The cards do include
all the Master Game ratings/symbols, plus I am positive this set had been run
through the new algorithms for pitcher's grades, etc. Example: Buck O'Brien of the Red Sox made five starts,
47.2 innings, with an ERA of 0.38, and got a grade of A&B(XW) … that is definitely not an old-school
pitching grade.
Defensive grades definitely took a hit
in this set:
Three C8's, twenty-three C7's, and all
the catcher arms are between +3 and -3 only.
One 1B5 (Ed Konetchy), five 1B4's, 22 1B3's
One 2B9 (Eddie Collins), three 2B8's, ten 2B7's
Two 3B5's (Larry Gardner, Terry Turner), twelve 3B4's
Zero SS9's, seven SS8's
One OF3 (Owen "Chief" Wilson w/39 Arm), 47 OF2's
This resulted in a larger number of
errors occurring through the course of the season, but still nowhere close to
the actual total.
The big news In baseball heading into 1911 was the decision to use a new cork-center baseball. It is one thing, in theory,
to tweak a baseball to attempt to meet a stated goal, but these
decisions can often result in unexpected consequences. But without history to
impact their thinking on the matter, the decision was made to try and introduce
a little more offense into the game. The results were as follows:
Season |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Runs |
1910 AL |
.243 |
.308 |
.321 |
.621 |
4573 |
1911 AL |
.273 |
.338 |
.358 |
.696 |
5655 |
1911 AL Replay |
.275 |
.338 |
.361 |
.699 |
5772 |
1910 NL |
.256 |
.328 |
.338 |
.666 |
5004 |
1911 NL |
.260 |
.335 |
.356 |
.691 |
5506 |
1911 NL Replay |
.260 |
.333 |
.359 |
.692 |
5673 |
There was definitely a boost to the
offense, especially in the AL, but not really much of an explosion. That would
come in another ten years. The replay results came out quite close to the
actual results, as they are supposed to. The real beneficiary turned out to be
a young outfielder in Cleveland named Shoeless Joe Jackson. Jackson hit over .500 for
most of the replay, only falling short over the final month of the season,
finishing at .473. Besides leading the league in average, Jackson also led in
runs scored (147), was third in RBI’s (131), led in hits (275), led in doubles
(69), led in homeruns (12), and finished tied for third in triples (21). That
adds up to 102 total extra-base hits and 422 total bases, both amazing numbers.
The Philadelphia A's were challenged
by Chicago and Cleveland early, but by the end of Week Five they were in first
place all by themselves and there they stayed for the remainder of the season.
Boston was able to stay within single digits through the mid-point of the
season, but even as Boston continued to play well it was the Athletics that
eventually expanded their lead to a staggering 23.0 games by season's end.
In the NL, the Pirates had an amazing
season. They finished with 20 more wins in the replay than they had in 1911 and
won the NL Pennant. They took sole possession of first place by the end of Week
4 and they never relinquished it. To describe them, the word “tenacious” is the
best descriptor I could come up with. The second-place Giants led the NL in
team hitting, pitching, and fielding, with the Pirates finishing in second
place in all of those categories, but the difference between the two was
negligible. The big difference was that Pittsburgh went 16-6 versus New York
over the course of the season, winning the key games when they had to, and
then withstanding a late-season Giants’ rush to claim the pennant.
Most prognosticators picked the A's to
defeat the Pirates, but no one picked them to do so by throwing four shutout
victories in five games, finishing the series with a team ERA of 0.60.
Pittsburgh collected only twelve hits in the series and hit a poorly .083
(12-for-144) as a team. The A's pitching simply overpowered the hapless
Pittsburghers and gave Connie Mack and his A's their second consecutive World
Series title. If you had told a Pittsburgh fan that their pitchers would finish
with a 1.47 ERA and would only allow nine runs in the five games you would likely
have a happy fan with visions of pennants waving in their eyes. Alas, it was
not to be as Philadelphia didn't do much, but they did enough to capture
the wins when they had the opportunity.
1920
February, 2023 - September, 2023
The 1920 season was a season of
baseball in transition. The pitching dominated game of the first two decades of
the 20th century that required slap hitting and speed on the bases was giving
way to the coming offensive explosion symbolized by the arrival of sluggers
like Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, George Sisler, and others yet to come. Stars such
as Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, and Tris Speaker were still stars, but aging stars by
this time, and even they were forced to adapt to some degree as well.
The spitball and its variations were
outlawed before the 1920 season started, with exceptions granted for a set of
pitchers who were grandfathered in and allowed to keep using their
bread-and-butter pitch. This not only gave the batter some advantage but put
pitchers at a further disadvantage by removing a weapon from their arsenal.
Some pitchers were able to adapt, some were not, and the game moved on.
The other thing to remember is that
World War I ended in 1919. During the war, seasons had been shortened,
players had been drafted, and the overall impact on the country, in general, meant that now, since the war was over and the boys were coming home, society as a whole had changed. A similar thing happened with regard to World
War Two - the boys coming home from the war found the country a different place
than when they left. Throw in the Black Sox scandal, and all this means that
baseball was moving away from its old way of doing business and was moving
ahead with the times, just as they have continued to do so to this day.
The 1920 White Sox were a very good
team and worthy of repeating as AL champions, but mostly they were tenacious.
They were stuck in second place for most of the season, perched right on New
York's tail, but never faltered in their pennant quest. Twice during the season,
they caught and passed New York, even if only for a few days, only to see the
Yankees regain the top spot, but with a month to go in the season they seized
the top spot a third time, and this time they were able to hold off furious
rally attempts from both New York and Cleveland to claim the AL title for the
second consecutive year. However, on the Monday before the final weekend of the
regular season, eight White Sox players were suspended and eventually banned
from baseball due to gambling allegations following indictments in a court in
Chicago.
Cincinnati had won the World Series in
1919 and was looking to repeat in 1920, and while they got off to a good start,
unfortunately, they were caught behind a buzzsaw named the New York Giants. The
Reds never gave up, hung around in second place, and waited and hoped for the
Giants to finally cool off, which they finally did over the last month of the
season. Once Cincinnati did move into first place they sometimes found just as
hard to stay there as it was to get there. The Reds finally clinched the NL
Pennant on the next-to-last day of the season and they did it in a most
unconventional way - they won all three games of a tripleheader over Pittsburgh.
Besides just pennant races, a lot had
happened over this previous year. While Cincinnati had won the 1919 World
Series, in just the past week they had learned that Chicago may have thrown the
World Series to the benefit of gamblers. The Reds were convinced they were good
enough to have won it, to begin with, but now, doubt had been cast on the
population at large, and the Reds knew they needed to get this win now to if
nothing else, restore their own reputation.
After a rambunctious and topsy-turvy
regular season, it was time for the 1920 BBW Replay World Series. Last year's
combatants, the Chicago White Sox and the Cincinnati Reds would reprise their
roles as their respective league champions. A letter signed by both league presidents
stated the order and dates of games would be the same as last season, so
Cincinnati would be the home team for games one through three, followed by a
travel day, and then Chicago would host the final four (as needed).
However, the suddenly under-powered
White Sox did the impossible - they swept the World Series in four games, with
three of the games requiring extra innings. Quite an ending to a topsy-turvy
season.
1930
https://rogers1930apbareplay.blogspot.com/
April, 2018 - September, 2018
Philadelphia got off to a bit of a
sluggish start, partially because they had a lot of games early with Washington
and the Nationals got off to a really fast start (Washington finished 13-9
versus the A's), but once the A's kicked it into gear there was nothing that
could stop them. The A's featured a great defense, a powerful offense, and Lefty Grove anchoring another wise OK pitching
staff. This is a case where a great defense improved the pitching staff, and
when in doubt, the A's offense stepped in to lead the way.
At the completion of Week 19 St. Louis
was 76-49 and in third place in the NL, but they then proceeded to end the
season on a 25-4 run to easily clinch the NL pennant. Several key things
happened - first of all, the Cardinals got healthy. Chick Hafey missed five weeks over the season on
two different injury stints, and he returned to play about this time. Frankie Frisch had a two-week absence and he
returned at this same time as well. As the Cardinals were getting healthy their
primary opponents suffered key injuries, all of which helped to open the door
for the Cardinals.
The Cardinals ended the regular season
on a hot streak and they kept that hot streak going by taking games one, two,
and three of the World Series. The A's came back to win the next two, but then
St. Louis pulled out win #4 in a Game Six thirteen-inning nail-biter.
1941
https://rogers1941apbareplay.blogspot.com/
June, 2022 - December, 2022
In 1941 the Yankees got off to a slow
start and around mid-May decided to bench their newly minted double play combo
- shortstop Phil Rizzuto and second baseman Jerry Priddy. Around this same time, several other
things happened - Joe DiMaggio started his hitting streak, the
Yankees set a consecutive game streak record for homeruns, and the offense
overall kicked it into overdrive. With their offense now fully engaged, their
solid pitching rotation was able to flourish, the result being that New York
was able to easily run away with the 1941 AL pennant.
There was no such drama in the replay.
The Yankees got off to a hot start, took the early lead, held off minor
challenges from Cleveland and Chicago, and ran away with the AL pennant by 15.0
games over second-place Boston. Joe DiMaggio (.362, 43 2B, 27 HR, 101 RBI's), as
was fully expected, never came close to a 56-game hitting streak (nineteen was
his replay max) but his presence in the middle of the Yankees lineup was a
constant presence and came through with many key hits when needed.
In 1941 the Cardinals put up a valiant
fight for the NL pennant but were ultimately doomed by several late-season
injuries that opened the door for Brooklyn to capture the crown. The Dodgers
got off to a hot start in the replay but St. Louis stayed right on their tail,
and then when the Dodgers suddenly cooled off the Cardinals stayed hot and
moved into first place where they stayed for the last two-thirds of the season.
St. Louis led the NL in hitting and fielding and was second in pitching - this
was a very good team.
Both teams won their league pennant
relatively easily, but the last month of the season was rough for both teams.
Center fielder Joe DiMaggio missed two weeks at the beginning of
the month but has played regularly since. Left fielder Charlie Keller missed most of the last two weeks
of the month, only having returned for the final few games of the season. Third
baseman Red Rolfe experienced colitis and missed much of
the month of September as well, but was able to return to the lineup before
season end. All three have been deemed healthy and were in the regular lineup
for New York.
St. Louis had a major injury to deal
with in that first baseman Johnny Mize tore ligaments in his arm late in the
season and would miss the World Series. Johnny Hopp moved in from the outfield to cover
first in his absence and rookie sensation Stan Musial took Mize's place on the roster and
was stationed in left field. Center fielder Terry Moore missed a couple of weeks in September
but was back on the field late in the month. Right fielder Enos Slaughter missed almost a full month due to
a broken clavicle and was limited to pinch-hitting duties the final few weeks
of the season, but Moore and Slaughter were both deemed healthy and were
in the regular lineup for St. Louis.
St. Louis won the World Series in five
games, with Game #5 being a 1-0 victory, the only run scoring in the bottom of
the ninth when first baseman Johnny Hopp singled home third baseman Jimmy Brown with the game-winner.
1949
https://rogers1949apbareplay.blogspot.com/
November, 2018 - April, 2019
Boston (AL) and St. Louis (NL) both
dominated their leagues this year as Brooklyn and New York (AL) both seemed
content to just ride out the season as neither put on a big late-season push.
The World Series games were televised, although it is not certain exactly how many
people in either of these markets actually have access to a television. It was
expected that bars and department stores that have them will both draw a
pretty good crowd.
If this had of actually happened it
might be talked about as the greatest World Series. World Series MVP Ted Williams (.433, 10 runs scored, 12 RBI's, six
homeruns) hit homeruns in the bottom of the ninth and the bottom of the
eleventh to extend the Game Seven that eventually led to a Red Sox World Series
win is the kind of thing that books would be written about, documentaries would
be produced over and really would be the one thing that Williams needed that
would move up his standing in the discussion of the greatest of all time.
The advantage St. Louis had over
Boston was in the depth of their bullpen, but the Cardinals’ relievers blew two
save opportunities, had two losses, and finished with a 5.04 ERA. Of course, Stan Musial hitting .185 for the series didn’t
help either. The thing that would be remembered in St. Louis would have been
the Cardinals hitting six triples in Game Four but still managing to lose a
game that would have otherwise given them a 3-1 advantage in the series. Wow!
What a series!
1957
https://rogers1957apbareplay.blogspot.com/
06/2020 - 01/2021
Chicago (AL) spent a few days during
Week Two in second place, but by the end of Week 5, they were playing .800 ball.
At the end of Week 11, their winning percentage was .667, but they only had a
3.5 games lead over Detroit. Then they got hot again, occasionally touching
.700, but generally maintaining a winning percentage of around .680. The
Yankees did manage to draw within 3.0 games a few times later, but they couldn't
maintain, and the White Sox quickly built their lead back up.
Milwaukee got off to a slow start. Lew Burdette struggled, their bullpen was a mess,
second base was a hole, first baseman Joe Adcock broke his ankle and missed most of the
season, and then center fielder Bill Bruton ripped up his knee and missed the
second half of the season. Hank Aaron had 30 homeruns by the middle of June
and pretty much carried the team from the start, but then things began to fall
into place. Red Schoendienst was acquired to settle the
infield, Burdette turned his season around, Don McMahon was called up and settled the bullpen
down, Eddie Mathews got hot, Wes Covington was recalled from the minors and
then he got hot, and Bob Hazle was called up and he had a half-season
for the ages. The Braves didn’t move into first place until mid-August, but
once they did, they ran away with the NL pennant, finishing the season with a
10.0 game lead over the second-place Cardinals.
In the World Series, the Braves quickly
won the first three games, but then the White Sox won Game Four, and then they won Game Five too, and then they won Game Six as well to tie the
series at 3-3. A two-run homerun in the first game Milwaukee the quick lead in
Game Seven, but just as they had done all season Chicago crawled back into it,
soon tied it up, and then took a lead 3-2 lead in the fifth. Billy Pierce ended up going all the way to get
the Game Seven win over Warren Spahn in another memorable World Series.
1967
https://rogers1967apbareplay.blogspot.com/
???, 2023 - ???, 2024
I am going to replay 1967 next. I am
still doing prep work at this time and have not yet started gameplay yet. I am
considering using APBAGO for this replay … stay tuned.
Conclusion
I do not believe there are any
"bad" baseball seasons. You may have your personal preferences (as I
did) for older seasons, or perhaps there is a particular season you have an
interest in because of youthful memories, or perhaps there is a player or
pennant race that interests you. Every season has its own set of heroes, one-year wonders, injuries, and unfortunate failures. Get started, play a
season, decide how you want to tweak it for next time, and then start a new
one.
Roger, congratulations on your hard work and excellent analysis. 57 was probably the first year I ever had knowledge of the MLB; it was a fascinating year. It's great to see you finding something to do with all your extra time!! Fascinating stuff; keep it coming.
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